PINE BLUFF AREA TRANSPORTATION STUDY

JEFFERSON COUNTY PINE BLUFF WHITE HALL

 

 

 

 

YEAR 2035

TRANSPORTATION

PLAN

 

 

 

 

Prepared by:

 

Southeast Arkansas Regional Planning Commission

 

In cooperation with:

 

Arkansas Highway and Transportation Department

Cities of Pine Bluff and White Hall

Jefferson County

Federal Highway Administration

Federal Transit Administration

 

 

The preparation and publication of this document was financed in part by funds provided by the United States Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration, and Federal Transit Administration. The provision of Federal financial assistance should not be construed as denoting U.S. governmental approval of plans, policies, programs, or projects contained herein.

 

 

NOTICE OF NONDISCRIMINATION:

The Southeast Arkansas Regional Planning Commission (SARPC) and the Pine Bluff Area Transportation Study (PBATS) comply with all civil rights provisions of federal statutes and related authorities that prohibited discrimination in programs and activities receiving federal financial assistance. Therefore, SARPC and PBATS do not discriminate on the basis of race, sex, color, age, national origin, religion, or disability, in the admission, access to and treatment in their programs and activities, as well as their hiring or employment practices. Complaints of alleged discrimination and inquiries regarding their nondiscrimination policies may be directed to Jerre George, Director/Study Director, P.O. Box 8398, Pine Bluff, AR 71611 (870) 534-4247 or the following email address: jerregeorge@cablelynx.com.


TABLE OF CONTENTS

 

Page

SECTION 1

 

AN OVERVIEW OF THE TRANSPORTATION PLANNING PROCESS

1

         

Introduction

2

         

Factors Considered in the Planning Process

3

         

Metropolitan Transportation Plan

3

         

Study Organization

8

         

Public Involvement

11

 

 

SECTION 2

 

INVENTORIES AND FORECASTS

14

         

Population

15

         

Employment

20

         

Vehicle Registration

25

         

Traffic Volumes

26

 

 

SECTION 3

 

CURRENT LAND USE AND NATURAL RESOURCES

32

         

Historical, Cultural, and Natural Resources

33

 

 

SECTION 4

 

LAND USE, MASTER STREET PLAN, & COMMUNITY CONTROLS

37

         

Land Use Plan

38

         

Master Street Plan

52

         

Community Controls and Preservation of Right-of-Way

60

 

 

SECTION 5

 

2035 TRANSPORTATION PLAN

61

         

The Unconstrained Plan

62

         

Constrained Transportation Plan and Capital Improvement Program

64

 

 

SECTION 6

 

BICYCLE PLAN

78

         

Overview

79

         

Bicycle Plan Summary

79

 

 

 

SECTION 7

 

ADDITIONAL TRANSPORTATION PLANNING ELEMENTS

85

         

Transit

86

         

Intermodal Transportation Facilities

93

         

Intelligent Transportation System

102

         

Pedestrian Movements

104

         

Transportation Enhancement Program

111

         

Social Equity and Environmental Justice

113

         

Management System

114


LIST OF TABLES

Table

 

Page

 

 

 

1.

Study Area Population as a % of Total County Projected Population

16

2.

Study Area Estimated Population by Census Tract Block Groups

17

3.

Total County Non-Agriculture Employment by Category

20

4.

Estimated Employment of the Study Area by Census Tract Blocks Groups

22

5.

Motor Vehicle Registration

25

6.

Traffic Volumes

27

7.

Estimated Federal Funds Available

65

7a.

Pine Bluff Projected Dedicated Revenue and Other Sources

66

7b.

Jefferson County Projected Dedicated Revenue and Other Sources

67

7c.

White Hall Projected Dedicated Revenue and Other Sources

68

8.

Long Range Transportation Capital Improvement Program

70

9.

Available Funds/Programmed Funds

74

10.

Unconstrained Projects

75

11.

Public Transportation Capital Improvement Program

90

 

 

 

 

LIST OF MAPS

 

Map

 

Page

 

 

 

1.

Year 2000 Census Tracts

24

2.

Jefferson County Physiographic Regions

35

3.

Environmentally Sensitive Areas

36

4.

Current Land Use

41

5.

Land Use Plan

51

6.

Unconstrained Transportation Plan

63

7.

Constrained Transportation Plan

77

8.

Bicycle Routes

84

9.

Truck Routes

101

 

LIST OF FIGURES

 

Figure

 

Page

 

 

 

1.

Expressway Cross-Section

54

2.

Freeway Cross-Section

55

3.

Principle Arterial Street Cross-Section

56

4.

Minor Arterial Street Cross-Section

57

5.

High-Density Collector Street Cross-Section

58

6.

Low-Density Collector Street Cross-Section

59


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

AN OVERVIEW

OF THE

TRANSPORTATION

PLANNING

PROCESS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


INTRODUCTION

The Pine Bluff Area Transportation Study Area (PBATS) Program was initiated in 1964 in accordance with the Federal Highway Act of 1962. The intent of the program was to provide a network of transportation facilities capable of providing safe, convenient, effective, and efficient movement of goods and persons throughout the urbanized portion of Jefferson County. The Federal‑Aid Highway Act of 1962 stated:

 

"After July 1, 1965, the secretary shall not approve under Section 105 of this title any program for projects in any urban area of more than 50,000 population unless he finds that such projects are based on a continuing comprehensive transportation planning process carried on cooperatively by states and local communities in conformance with objectives stated in this section."

 

The original participants in the transportation planning process were the City of Pine Bluff, Jefferson County, Arkansas Highway and Transportation Department, and the Federal Highway Administration, and the original study culminated with the adoption of the recommended 1990 Transportation Plan in April 1969.

 

The Study Areas have been expanded since the original transportation plan was adopted to reflect the growth in the urbanized area. The City of White Hall became a member of the Study Area shortly after the plan was adopted in 1969. Other participants were included in the planning process in accordance with federal planning requirements. The new members were the Federal Transit Administration and Federal Aviation Administration. Between 1969 and 1995, the transportation plan was updated from time to time to reflect social, economic, and environmental changes affecting the study area.

 

In 1991, the President signed the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act (ISTEA). This reauthorization act dramatically changed the transportation program from one that dealt primarily with roads to one that addresses a variety of transportation programs. ISTEA covered all forms of surface transportation and related interests: roads, bikeways, pedestrian movement, transit, rail, intermodal transportation and related issues, and pipeline transmission lines. In 1995, PBATS Policy Committee adopted the Year 2025 Transportation Plan which addresses the aforementioned items.

 

On June 9, 1998, the President signed the Transportation Equity Act for the 21st Century (TEA-21). The TEA-21 builds on the initiative established by the Intermodal Surface Transportation Efficiency Act of 1991. This new act combined the continuation and improvement of current programs with new initiatives to improve safety of the transportation systems, protecting and enhancing communities and the natural environment as we provide transportation, and advancing Americas economic growth and competitiveness domestically and internationally through efficient and flexible transportation.

 

On August 10, 2005, the President signed the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU). SAFETEA-LU essentially represents a continuation of the last two transportation reauthorization bills, however this bill


also requires the planning process to address issues in the area of safety, reducing traffic congestion, improving the efficiency in freight movement, and increasing intermodal connectivity.

 

 

FACTORS CONSIDERED IN THE PLANNING PROCESS

 

 

The Federal Regulations set forth pursuant to SAFETEA-LU require that plans and programs address the eight factors listed below.

 

1.      Support the economic vitality of the Metropolitan Areas, especially by enabling global competitiveness, productivity and efficiency;

2.      Increase the safety of the transportation system for motorized and non-motorized users;

3.      Increase the security of the transportation system for motorized and non-motorized users;

4.      Increase the accessibility and mobility options available to people and for freight;

5.      Protect and enhance the environment, promote energy conservation, and improve quality of life, and promote consistency between transportation improvements and State and local planned growth and economic development patterns;

6.      Enhance the integration and connectivity of the transportation system, across and between modes, for people and freight;

7.      Promote efficient system management and operation; and

8.      Emphasize the preservation of the existing transportation system.

 

 

METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION PLAN

 

 

Since 1969, the Pine Bluff Area Transportation Study (PBATS) has conducted a continuing comprehensive, and cooperative (3-C) transportation planning process for the Pine Bluff-White Hall urban area. This fiscally constrained Metropolitan Transportation Plan provides a picture of those transportation improvements that are planned to occur by the year 2035. This plan discusses the transportation planning process, and provides supporting data behind the plans development.

 

PBATS has the responsibility to ensure that the 3-C transportation planning process is appropriately conducted and make decisions related to the planning and funding of transportation projects which are proposed to be constructed with federal, state and local funds. For a project to be eligible to receive federal transportation funds it must be included in the Financial Constrained Long-Range Transportation Improvement Program as identified in this Transportation Plan.

 

The purpose of the PBATS 2035 Long Range Transportation Plan is to identify and detail the multi-modal transportation improvements and programs to be carried out within the Transportation Study Area during the plans timeframe and demonstrate the financial means by which these improvements and programs will be implemented. Prior to the plans adoption and during its development, public open houses were held to obtain citizen opinions. The plan was then prepared by the staff with the assistance of the technical committee and was then adopted by the Policy Committee of PBATS.

 


This plan addresses the transportation needs, balancing with environmental issues and quality of life issues in the study area. The PBATS, in order to meet the needs of its citizens and in response to federal requirements, has compiled all of the elements that guide transportation planning in this area in a comprehensive long-range transportation plan.


 

GOALS AND OBJECTIVES

 

The overall purpose of the transportation planning process is to develop a plan that can assist the units of government within the planning area in improving the quality of life for its citizens. The transportation plan provides a framework that the governmental units can use to improve public access to places of employment, shopping, education, recreation, social services, and other destinations throughout the study area. In the planning process it is also important to consider all aspects of the transportation system and all modes of travel. While the modes of transportation that service individual trips are certainly important and a major part of any transportation system, it is also important to consider the types of transportation that are used to deliver the goods and services required to support the quality of life we enjoy. Also, surface transportation modes - roadways, transit, bicycle, pedestrian, and rail - along with air transportation, pipelines, and electrical transmission systems comprise total designed transportation system that fosters the safe and efficient movement of people, goods, and energy, enabling the Study Area to be competitive in todays global market place.

 

GOALS

 

In developing any plan, the first step is to develop goals acceptable to the general public that lead to solving the problems perceived by the public. The seven overall goals that the transportation planning process has been designed to meet are as follows:

 

        To develop a balanced, integrated, safe, energy efficient, and environmentally safe overall transportation system that addresses all modes of transportation used to serve the public needs, including active transportation (bicycle and pedestrian), personal vehicles, short- and long-haul freight (truck), public transit, air, water, rail, and pipeline.

 

        To develop a transportation system that contributes to the enhancement of desirable social, economic, and environmental qualities of the study area.

 

  To utilize the existing transportation facilities to the fullest extent possible to ensure that all

opportunities to interconnect land uses and neighborhoods within the Study Area are available.

        To promote a balanced and sustained economic growth in the Study Area by implementing efficient transportation improvements that allow for the movement of people and freight within and through the study area.

 

        To develop an intermodal transportation system that will provide equity, choice and opportunity for all citizens, and allow the flow of commodities and goods through the community.

 

        Preserve the existing transportation system facilities and promote efficient system management and operations of all modes of transportation.

 

        Utilize available personnel and financial resources efficiently so as to meet the public and private sector transportation needs.

 

OBJECTIVES

 

1.         STREETS AND HIGHWAY

 

Develop an efficient street and highway network capable of providing an appropriate level of service for a variety of transportation modes.

 

      Develop streets and highways in a manner consistent with the adopted land use plan.

      Increase the connectivity of the existing street network and improve access throughout the Study Area.

      Develop regionally significant streets and highways in a manner which minimizes travel times and distances.

      Develop visually attractive travel corridors.

      Minimize transportation accidents and severity.

      Include sidewalks and bicycle facilities in the design of roadways to accommodate and encourage pedestrian and bicycle travel where appropriate.

      Develop local streets in a manner so as to link one neighborhood with another neighborhood.

 

2.         PUBLIC TRANSPORTATION

 

Promote a safe, efficient and diverse public transportation system that is accessible to various segments of the population.

 

      Operate safe and efficient scheduled transit service that minimizes travel time and distance.

      Implement land use strategies that maximize the potential for transit patronage and coverage.

      Establish programs and incentives that encourage transit ridership and ride-sharing.

      Serve the elderly and transit dependent population with convenient transportation to needed services, places of employment and other locations.

      Maximize ADA transit service to the fullest extent possible.

      Maximize transits coverage area to provide service in the planning area in a feasible manner.

      Recognize and support the transit services provided by human service agencies and private transit operators.

      Facilitate the integration and coordination of different transportation modes by establishing intermodal facilities.

      Implement the Transportation Coordination Plan.

 

3.         PEDESTRIAN AND BICYCLE

 

Develop a transportation system that integrates pedestrian and bicycle modes of transportation with the vehicle transportation.

 

      Increase the design sensitivity of specific transportation projects to the needs of pedestrians and bicyclists.

      Improve the transportation system to accommodate pedestrian and bicycle access along roadways through design and facility standards.

      Increase pedestrian and bicycle safety through public awareness programs.

      Provide linkages for pedestrians and/or bicyclists with neighborhoods, employment centers, commercial areas, parks and schools.

      Develop trail facilities where appropriate.

      Develop a funding mechanism to maintain sidewalks, trails and bikeways.

      Develop and implement plans and policies to make bicycling and walking to school a safer and more appealing transportation alternative

 

4.         FREIGHT AND GOODS MOVEMENT

 

Provide a freight transportation system supporting the movement of goods.

 

      Develop a transportation system supporting intermodal connectivity that improves access for freight via a network of highways, railroads, airport, and river port.

      Facilitate coordination among transportation modes through the establishment of an intermodal facility.

      Support expansion opportunities at the river port, airport and railroad gravity yard that would attract major cargo facilities.

      Designate safe routes with minimal urban exposure for the transportation of hazardous materials.

      Designate truck routes that minimize exposure to neighborhoods and historic and cultural resources.

      Maintain the airports ongoing long range planning process.

 

5.         ENVIRONMENT

 

Develop a transportation system that preserves and enhances the environment.

        Plan and design transportation systems and facilities that preserve and compliment the areas natural features and resources.

        Plan and design transportation systems and facilities that protect and preserve the cultural and historic resources.

        Plan and design transportation facilities that minimize neighborhood disruption.

        Design attractive transportation systems that reinforce the study area standards of appearance.

        Plan and design a transportation system and program that maintain or improve the existing air quality.

 

6.         FINANCIAL

 

Make transportation capital improvement decisions for transportation modes that make the efficient use of limited financial resources.

 

        Minimize implementation and operation costs of transportation projects.

        Develop transportation projects that enhance the local and regional economy.

        Implement ITS projects in a timely manner.

        Explore new sources of revenue.

 

7.         SAFETY

 

Create a mechanism to insure that safety issues are addressed in all the modes of transportation.

 

        When planning and designing transportation projects insure that all safety features are considered in the process.

        Conduct annual safety audits on all the transportation modes.

        Encourage local governments to implement an on-going maintenance system to address transportation safety issues.

        Promote the use of transportation safety awareness programs.

 


STUDY ORGANIZATION

 

 

POLICY COMMITTEE

 

The Policy Committee has the general responsibility for directing and administering the preparation of the comprehensive study and for implementing the continuing planning process with assistance and advice from the Coordinating Committee and other technical subcommittees. The representatives for the state and federal governments also advise the Coordinating Committee on state and federal policies and regulations.

 

The Policy Committee's membership during 2010 is as follows:

 

REPRESENTATIVES NAME AND TITLE

 

Jefferson County Mike Holcomb, County Judge

Mandy Alford, Quorum Court Member

 

Pine Bluff Carl Redus Jr., Mayor

Bill Burnett, Alderman

 

White Hall James Morgan, Mayor , PBATS Chairman

William May, Alderman

 

Southeast Arkansas Regional

Planning Commission Ken Smith, Chairman

 

Arkansas Highway and Alan Meadors, Chief, Planning Division

Transportation Department James House, District Engineer

 

Arkansas River Regional Intermodal Authority Trotter Ford, Chairman

 

Specifically, the Committee's responsibilities are:

 

1. Adopt a long‑range transportation plan including priorities for improvement.

2. Adopt a Unified Planning Work Program for the continuing planning process.

3. Adopt a Four-Year Transportation Improvement Plan

4. Adopt a Public Participation Plan.

5. Approve an Annual List of Obligated Projects.

6. Review estimated cost, work task, and funding as proposed.

7. Periodically review the cost of accomplishing the required work and recommend such changes as are necessary.

8. Review each major phase of the study and direct the technical and/or coordinating committees as necessary.

9. Implement its plans by taking steps to obtain official acceptance of its proposals by the units of government involved and by the people of the area.

10. Meet as necessary to review all material pertaining to changing transportation needs in the area and to revise the plan as needed.

11. Support and cooperate with other planning agencies in areas of mutual interest such as updating and implementing comprehensive plans, zoning, subdivision design and controls, official maps and capital improvements programs.

12. Exercise all other functions necessary to implement the continuing transportation planning process in accordance with the SAFETEA-LU.

13. Establish technical committees composed of committee members and other technical personnel involved in transportation within the study area.

14. Certifying the planning process is in compliance with the U.S. Department of

Transportations planning regulations.

 

COORDINATING/TECHNICAL COMMITTEE

 

The general responsibility of the Coordinating/Technical Committee and its subcommittees is to assist the Policy Committee in carrying out the planning program by reviewing and preparing reports and recommendations. Responsibilities of the various subcommittees involved in the overall comprehensive transportation planning process include the analysis of existing and future conditions relating to economic development, population, land use, transportation facilities, travel patterns, land use and development codes, and social, environmental and community value factors. The committee is also responsible for addressing the eight points required under SAFETEA-LU.

 

The Technical/Coordinating Committee's membership during 2010 is as follows:

 

REPRESENTATIVES

NAME AND TITLE

 

 

Jefferson County

Ricky Bullard and Angelo Walker, Superintendents, County Road Department

 

 

Pine Bluff

J. T. Golden, Manager, Street Department

 

Larry Reynolds, Manager, Pine Bluff Transit

 

 

White Hall

James Morgan, Mayor

 

Jeff Jones, Street Manager

 

Arkansas Highway & Transportation Department

 

 

Ernie Westfall, District Construction Engineer

 

Julie Hart, Transportation Planner

 

Steve Alexander, Administration Officer

 

 

Southeast Arkansas Regional Planning Commission

 

Jerre George, Director

 

 

 

 

Pine Bluff Airport Commission

Doug Hale, Manager

 

 

Intermodal Representatives

Lou Ann Nisbett, Executive Director, The Alliance

 

 

Federal Highway Administration

David Blakeney, Right-of-Way Officer

 

 

Office of Emergency Management

Karen Quarles, Director

 

 

Area Agency on the Aging

Tony Barr, Transportation Director

 

 

Union Pacific Railroad

Charles Falkins

 

 

Pine Bluff Police Department

Lt. Robert Roby

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


PUBLIC INVOLVEMENT

 

 

One of the essential elements in the transportation planning process is public involvement. In order to obtain public involvement ‑ i.e. input from citizens, private providers of transportation, other transportation mode representatives, and various interested parties to assist in planning and developing the Year 2035 Transportation Plan and other planning activities carried on by PBATS Policy Committee, the following public participation process is used:

 

METROPOLITAN TRANSPORTATION PLAN

 

The Metropolitan Transportation Plan (MTP) must be in place for the PBATS Study Area in order to comply with federal guidelines, and in order to facilitate efficient utilization of transportation resources. The MTP must be updated every five years at a minimum.

 

1.      The Technical Committee will meet to develop a draft of the MTP elements.

2.      At a minimum, five open houses will be conducted as part of the development of the Long Range Plan. The first four open houses will be held after the Technical Committee has developed a draft of the MTP elements and the Policy Committee approves the draft of the MTP elements. The fifth open house will be held after a draft MTP document has been completed.

3.      The first four open houses will be for the public to view the draft MTP elements and to make comments and will be held within a two-week period. In an effort to facilitate maximum public involvement, the open houses will be a different locations and times of day. Two of the first four open houses will be held in predominately minority neighborhoods/areas.

4.      Before the first of four open houses to view the MTP element list and before the fifth open house to review the draft MTP document, three display advertisements stating that all surface transportation and transit projects are included will be placed in the Pine Bluff Commercial newspaper over a two-week period stating the time, place and purpose of each open house.

5.      A press release for the first four open houses will be sent to the local newspapers and other outlets (radio stations, TV stations and local access cable stations) at least two weeks before the first open house takes place and again two weeks before the fifth open house takes place.

6.      The meeting information described above will be placed on the PBATS MPO web site and made available for public viewing at the municipal offices of the Cities of Pine Bluff and White Hall, the Jefferson County Courthouse and UAPB.

7.      After the fourth open house, the public will have thirty days to submit their written comments on the MTP elements for consideration by the Technical Committee and Policy Committee.

8.      The Technical Committee will review all comments received and, if needed, make revisions to the Long Range Plan elements based on those comments. If necessary, a Technical Committee meeting will be held to address public comments. All plan revisions and comments will be submitted to the Policy Committee for its consideration.

9.      If necessary, a Policy Committee meeting will be held to address revisions and comments. After the Policy Committee reviews all comments and approves any changes, the PBATS MPO shall prepare a draft MTP document and present it the Technical Committee members for review. Comments will be incorporated into the draft document for presentation to the public.

10.  The fifth open house will be held to give the public an opportunity to review revisions to the MTP elements and make comments on the draft MTP document.

11.  After the fifth open house, the public will have thirty days to submit their written comments on the draft MTP document for consideration by the Technical Committee and Policy Committee.

12.  After reviewing and resolving comments received, the Technical Committee will meet to recommend the MTP document to the Policy Committee for approval and the Policy Committee will meet to consider and adopt the MTP.

13.  If significant written comments are received that require changes to the MTP document, another open house will be advertised as above and held to provide an opportunity for public review of the revisions.

14.  When significant written comments are received as a result of the public involvement process that are not addressed in the MTP, a report will be prepared indicating the reason the comments were not addressed. Said report shall be submitted to the Policy Committee for information purposes and filed in the MPO office. The Policy Committee will meet to consider and adopt the MTP.

 

UNIFIED PLANNING WORK PROGRAM (UPWP)

 

In the spring of each year, PBATS MPO and AHTD staff will draft a proposed Unified Planning Work Program (UPWP) for the coming fiscal year. The UPWP must be adopted by the Policy Committee by June 30th of each year.

 

1.      By the end of April, the proposed UPWP will be provided to the Technical Committee. Once the Technical Committee has reviewed and recommended the document for approval by the Policy Committee, there will be a two-week comment period.

2.      The public will be informed of the comment period in the following ways: a legal notice will be placed in the Pine Bluff Commercial and a press release will also be sent to the Pine Bluff Commercial repeating the information in the legal notice; notices of the availability of the document for public review will be posted in the municipal offices of the Cities of Pine Bluff and White Hall, the Jefferson County Courthouse, UAPB, the PBATS MPO office, and other local venues as deemed appropriate to fulfill the intent of Environmental Justice.

3.      During the public comment period, a copy of the draft UPWP may be obtained from the MPO office or viewed on the PBATS MPO website.

4.      After the two-week period, Technical Committee and Policy Committee meetings will be held to review and adopt the UPWP.

 

TRANSPORTATION IMPROVEMENT PROGRAM (TIP)

 

A Transportation Improvement Program (TIP) must be adopted by the Policy Committee every three years. The TIP covers a four-fiscal-year period and includes all surface transportation and transit projects and must be adopted by September 30th of update years.

 

1.      In March of update years, the PBATS MPO will call for proposed projects from the jurisdictions within the PBATS boundary to be submitted to the MPO by March 31st.

2.      The MPO will review the proposed projects to ensure that they are in the MTP and on the Functionally Classified Streets Map.

3.      By April 15th, the MPO will compile a draft TIP including all street projects and public transit projects.

4.      After the Technical Committee review of the draft TIP, a legal notice stating that all surface transportation and transit projects are included will be placed in the Pine Bluff Commercial newspaper to allow a 30-day period to gather public comment. The public can obtain a copy from the MPO office or view the document on PBATS MPO website.

5.      Press releases will be sent to the Pine Bluff Commercial newspaper initiating the 30-day comment period and the TIP approval process.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


 

 

 

 

INVENTORIES

AND

FORECASTS

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In order to assess the adequacy of the Transportation Plan for the Year 2035, it is necessary to maintain land use data, socio‑economic data, and transportation system characteristics on a current basis, review the collected data and forecast anticipated changes, and compare and evaluate the existing conditions in relation to the forecasts made in developing the recommended plan. These activities are necessary to determine if the assumptions made during the initial study and subsequent plan updates are holding constant.

 

Such elements as dwelling units, population, employment, vehicle registration, traffic volumes, crash data and social and environmental concerns are monitored and reviewed annually in order to ascertain trends in residential, commercial, and industrial land use development and its consequential effect on the existing and forecasted transportation systems. The elements contained in this section along with explanatory summaries of each element are as follows:

 

        Population: 2000 population, projected population for the years 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2035 estimated population by census track located in the planning area.

 

        Employment: 2000 employment, estimated employment for the years 2010, 2020, 2030 and 2035.

 

        Vehicle Registration: 1980, 1990, 2000, and 2008

 

        Traffic Volumes: 1995, 2000, 2004, and 2008

 

 

POPULATION

 

 

The year 2035 population projections for Jefferson County was obtained by using the Arkansas Institute for Economic Advancement University of Arkansas at Little Rock (UALR) Category A and B Population Projections for the years 2005 through 2030. It was determined to use the UALR projections after comparing these projections with the U.S. Census estimated population for Jefferson County. UALR projected population for Jefferson County appears to be higher than what the U.S. Census is estimating for Jefferson County in the short-time period. The population for Jefferson County in 2000 was 84,278. UALR projected population for 2010 is 80,840; in 2020 it is 78,114; and in 2030 it is 74,782. This is a decrease of 9,496 in population over the 30 year period for Jefferson County. Based on UALR population project trends for Jefferson County, our staff estimates that between the year 2030 and 2035 the County may lose another 682 in population which Jefferson County would have a projected population of 73,267. The Study Areas estimated population would then be 70,068 which would represent 95.6% of the Countys year 2035 population.

 

To determine the portion of the countys projected population that will reside in the PBATS Study Area, staff analyzed data obtained from the U.S. Census, PBATS Land Use Plan, and

9-1-1 addressing database. We also analyzed the migration patterns within the county. In 2000, 73,965 people lived within the PBATS Study Area which represents 87.7% of the total countys population. Based on our analysis of the above mentioned criterion, we estimate that the estimated year 2035 population of the PBATS Study Area will be 70,068, which represents 95.6% of the countys estimated 2035 population.

 

Table 1 shows the study area population in the year 2000 and the future estimated population of the study area and county population. Table 2 shows the year 2000 population of the study area by census tracts. Map 1 Census Tracts is shown on page 24.

 

TABLE 1

STUDY AREA POPULATION AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL COUNTY PROJECTED POPULATION

 

Year

Study Area

Population

County Population

Percentage of

County

2010

73,430

80,840

90.8%

2020

72,722

78,114

93.1%

2030

70,750

74,782

94.6%

2035

70,068

73,267

95.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 2

Estimated Population of the Study Area by Census Tract Block Groups

 

Census

Tract

Block

2000

Census

Estimated

2010

Estimated

2020

Estimated

2030

Estimated

2035

2

1000

358

383

490

525

540

 

2000

473

508

636

671

681

3.01

1000

942

1173

1383

1414

1429

 

2000

977

1163

1325

1364

1380

 

3000

1546

1674

1875

1907

1925

3.02

1000

1717

1921

2004

2042

2054

 

2000

694

862

1070

1107

1118

 

3000

964

964

1026

1303

1323

 

4000

644

747

834

868

886

 

5000

1214

1265

1288

1324

1340

3.03

1000

1036

1324

1517

1428

1443

 

2000

1241

1266

1294

1222

1197

 

3000

2150

2210

2303

2235

2197

5.02

1000

1034

892

755

678

653

 

2000

1257

1107

885

812

973

 

3000

1739

1639

1449

1383

1351

6

1000

409

140

59

54

52

 

2000

221

171

128

108

100

 

3000

57

37

9

8

7

9

1000

1194

1124

1073

1029

996

 

2000

982

897

843

827

796

 

3000

642

555

535

488

462

 

4000

622

507

445

402

377

10

1000

654

494

442

390

355

 

2000

652

494

442

384

357

 

3000

673

548

456

397

364

 

4000

412

232

205

154

118

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2 (continued)

Estimated Population of the Study Area by Census Tract Block Groups

 

Census

Tract

Block

2000

Census

Estimated

2010

Estimated

2020

Estimated

2030

Estimated

2035

12

1000

641

551

469

385

353

 

2000

623

543

466

403

375

 

3000

1091

1006

924

849

1008

 

4000

489

419

362

320

297

 

5000

507

437

360

294

270

13

1000

464

388

332

280

248

 

2000

560

444

378

312

285

 

3000

743

658

571

497

464

 

4000

1017

902

750

666

635

14.01

1000

1232

1137

970

849

824

 

2000

705

600

533

466

438

14.02

1000

560

440

362

310

286

 

2000

654

569

511

455

433

 

3000

1314

1315

1202

1138

1100

 

4000

700

590

511

468

437

15.01

1000

1838

1862

1814

1769

1748

 

2000

1702

1727

1712

1668

1648

 

3000

548

608

535

491

472

15.02

1000

765

755

727

674

655

 

2000

667

657

679

624

601

 

3000

1088

1108

1105

1064

1045

 

4000

1147

1166

1010

963

940

16

1000

1139

1039

998

945

923

 

2000

1077

1002

969

914

889

 

3000

1186

1086

1002

948

917

 

4000

1039

944

884

841

811

17

1000

1097

942

909

844

813

 

2000

676

649

611

556

531

 

3000

1106

991

884

830

799

 

4000

626

602

569

523

496

18

1000

1265

1282

1249

1204

1181

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Table 2 (continued)

Estimated Population of the Study Area by Census Tract Block Groups

 

Census

Tract

Block

2000

Census

Estimated

2010

Estimated

2020

Estimated

2030

Estimated

2035

18

2000

806

823

820

776

754

 

3000

1284

1299

1310

1264

1242

19.01

1000

586

588

575

538

513

 

2000

1027

1172

1208

1255

1231

19.03

1000

835

825

812

764

739

 

2000

776

826

863

821

796

 

3000

373

383

370

325

396

20

1000

910

1000

1183

1214

1222

 

2000

1588

1708

1785

1812

1812

 

3000

2223

2348

2445

2475

2481

 

4000

1065

1185

1192

1220

1229

21.03

1000

1477

1587

1689

1721

1729

 

2000

1944

2194

2196

2223

2230

 

3000

2190

2260

2327

2360

2370

21.04

1000

1426

1566

1697

1733

1738

 

2000

610

708

733

757

766

 

3000

2091

2242

2388

2418

2424

TOTAL

 

73,981

73,430

72,722

70,750

70,068

 

In summary, during the last twenty years, the north central area of the study area, which is located north of the Martha Mitchell Expressway, the central area adjacent to the central business district, and the west end area have experienced a decrease in population. This trend is expected to continue throughout the planning period. The south/western area located between State Highway 15 running west to the headwaters of Bayou Bartholomew, and the White Hall area are expected to continue to grow.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EMPLOYMENT

 

 

The economy of the study area is a key element in determining future growth and stability. As the economy changes, so does the population. Prior to World War II, the economy of the Pine Bluff area was that of a service center serving the agricultural needs of Southeast Arkansas and the rail needs of the Mid-South Delta area of the country. With the construction of the Pine Bluff Arsenal in the early 1940s, the economy of the Study Area started to change to reflect a more diversified economy. In the 1950s and 1960s, with the construction of the International Paper Plant and the opening of the Pine Bluff River Port, the study area economy became a diversified market and provides agricultural goods and manufacturing on a world wide scale.

 

The following two tables show the past, present and projected category of workers in the Study Area and compares the study area categories to those of the state of Arkansas.

 

Table 3

Total County Non-Agriculture Employment by Employment Category

 

 

2000

2010

2020

2030

2035

 

TOTAL

PERCENTAGE

ESTIMATED TOTAL

PERCENTAGE

ESTIMATED TOTAL

PERCENTAGE

ESTIMATED TOTAL

PERCENTAGE

ESTIMATED TOTAL

PERCENTAGE

 

Mining and Construction

 

960

 

2.7%

 

990

 

2.7%

 

1,100

 

2.8%

 

1,180

 

2.8%

 

1,220

 

2.8%

Manufacturing

8,450

23.4%

8,280

22.5%

8,530

21.6%

8,780

20.9%

9,030

20.7%

Transportation, Communication and Utilities

1,800

5.0%

1,800

4.9%

1,900

4.8%

1,970

4.7%

2,050

4.7%

Trade

7,240

19.9%

7,470

20.3%

8,250

20.9%

8,900

21.2%

9,240

21.2%

Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Banking

1,220

3.3%

1,140

3.1%

1,150

2.9%

 

1,180

 

 

2.8%

1,180

2.7%

Services

8,370

23.5%

9,160

24.9%

10,430

26.4%

11,720

27.9%

12,250

28.1%

Government

 

8,030

22.2%

7,960

21.6%

8,140

20.6%

8,270

19.7%

8,630

19.8%

TOTAL

36,070

 

36,800

 

39,500

 

42,000

 

43,600

 

 

 

 

 

 

Employment in the services sector of the study area economy will grow at a faster rate than the other sectors; however, the rate of growth of the services category will be similar to that of the nation as a whole. The main segment of the economy that has provided economic stability for the study area over the years has been the manufacturing sector. Over the next twenty-five years, the manufacturing sector, mining and construction sector, and transportation, communication and utilities section will see a smaller growth in terms of the number of persons employed in these sectors, and the Study Area will continue to be known as a blue collar employment center.

 

Woods and Poole Economics, Inc. long range employment projections for Jefferson County, Arkansas Employment Security Department short range employment projections for Southeast Arkansas, U. S. Census Transportation Planning Package (CTPP) employment data for the Study Area and the population projection for Jefferson County as prepared by the University of Arkansas-Little Rock were used in the evaluated process to estimate the number of workers employed in the Study Area. Based on the evaluation, it is projected that 42,390 people will be employed at places located within the Study Area in 2035 this is ninety-eight percent (98%) of the total number of persons who are employed within Jefferson County. In determining the location of places of work by census tract blocks, the 2000 CTPP, existing land use and proposed land use plan and the Long Range Transportation Plan network, and staff existing knowledge of the area was utilized. The following table show projected number of persons employment in the census tract and block group.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

TABLE 4

Estimated Employment of the Study Area by Census Tract Blocks Groups

 

Census Tract

Block Group

Estimated 2010

Estimated 2035

2

1000

20

30

 

2000

10

20

3.01

1000

130

500

 

2000

80

160

 

3000

80

300

3.02

1000

460

710

 

2000

550

750

 

3000

290

650

 

4000

30

50

 

5000

40

60

3.03

1000

1550

1600

 

2000

210

220

 

3000

740

1110

5.01

1000

360

370

 

2000

290

310

 

3000

1830

2080

6

1000

40

50

 

2000

2450

3250

 

3000

50

60

8

 

1440

1500

9

1000

1780

1900

 

2000

150

150

 

3000

10

10

 

4000

50

20

10

1000

450

470

 

2000

720

720

 

3000

400

400

 

4000

3440

3600

12

1000

80

90

 

2000

1300

1340

 

3000

220

200

 

4000

20

30

 

5000

10

10

13

1000

620

650

 

2000

740

760

 

3000

70

70

 

4000

130

150

14.01

1000

610

630

 

2000

550

620

14.02

1000

170

180

 

2000

100

100

 

3000

230

240

 

4000

30

30

15.01

1000

320

340

 

2000

380

400

 

3000

120

130

 

TABLE 4 (continued)

Estimated Employment of the Study Area by Census Tract Blocks Groups

 

Census Tract

Block Group

Estimated 2010

Estimated 2035

15.02

1000

1160

1260

 

2000

1240

1420

 

3000

170

300

 

4000

10

20

16

1000

110

110

 

2000

90

60

 

3000

100

100

 

4000

850

860

18

1000

110

40

 

2000

250

250

 

3000

2800

3690

19.01

1000

530

860

 

2000

1700

1850

19.03

1000

620

860

 

2000

10

10

 

3000

120

150

20

1000

30

500

 

2000